A survey by CNBC revealed that only 24% of survey participants thought the economic conditions in the country were good in 2021. Down from 50% in 2019, Americans are losing confidence in the economy fast, which has largely impacted the housing market.
The COVID-19-led recession is still getting heated, and the Federal Reserve attempted to assuage these concerns with its commitment to bringing down inflation. However, this does bring up a myriad of possibilities for the housing and real estate industry.
Here are some ways the economic slowdown
might impact the housing market in 2022.
An Increase in Bad Debts and Vacancy Rates
The economic slowdown will no longer exacerbate layoffs, especially in the entertainment, hospitality, retail and education industries. Multifamily homes may experience an increase in vacancies, especially in areas where these industries are major employers. The intense supply chain disruption is bound to impact economies worldwide. Many tenants who work in these industries may be forced to look for cheaper housing, which will create an exponential increase in the vacancy rates. Additionally, since non-payment of rent constitutes a bad debt, there will be an increase in bad debt. Moreover, suitable new tenants might not be available to replace those who are evicted for bad debt due to unemployment.
Exponential Demand for Local Equity
There may be a bright side to the chaos caused by the economic slowdown. It will result in an increase in the internal capital flow for real estate. Owing to the fact that the real estate market is considered a safer investment option, many stock investors will redirect their investments from the stock market to real estate. Local U.S. investors will put more money into multifamily properties
, which can offset the dip in demand for multifamily real estate, leading to a stabilization in prices or avoiding a significant decline in property values.
Dip in Commercial Real Estate Prices
As foreign equity, which is continually searching to buy real estate in the United States, encounters difficulties accessing U.S. markets, we will observe a decline in the price of commercial real estate. Foreign investors can demand greater prices for multifamily properties since their expectations are often significantly lower than those of domestic investors. The demand for multifamily buildings will decrease as foreign investments in the American market fall, leading to reduced pricing.
Bringing it Together
The recession brings with it immense uncertainty. Despite this, the impact on the housing and real estate markets can be predicted by looking at historical patterns. The big picture is that buyers need to be cautious when investing
but also consider the tremendous opportunity they can leverage during the recession.