Article | August 18, 2021
The spring selling season might be pushed back for a couple of weeks or even months as lockdowns restrict activity in some states and territories, according to CoreLogic. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, sales and listing turnouts typically rise from September to November. Over the ten years to December 2019, the growth in new listings during spring averaged 15.7% while sales hit 6.8%.
CoreLogic head of research Eliza Owen said both sales and listings tend to be most seasonal in the capital cities, particularly in Sydney and the ACT. With the lockdowns, however, the in-demand locations might not witness the same level of activity this upcoming spring, which is only two weeks away. "Observing housing market performance through lockdowns reveals that both sales and listings volumes will fall through lockdowns," Ms Owen said.
What can be learned from last year's Melbourne lockdown?
The extended lockdown in Melbourne last year could provide a glimpse as to what could happen in this year's lockdowns. Melbourne was in lockdown from mid-July to late October. During the period, listings dropped consistently, hitting the lowest at 1,411 in the four weeks to September, which was 80.7% lower than the previous five-year average.
There are several factors that contributed to the slowdown during the period.
Aside from the obvious restrictions that have limited inspections and auctions to virtual sessions, the low levels of consumer confidence also dampened the overall market sentiment, with vendors being unsure whether they would get an optimal price for their properties. Mortgage repayment deferrals and other government support also contributed, as these prevented distressed sales. However, when restrictions in Melbourne got lifted by late October, there was a sudden shift in the market mood, with listings quickly recovering. "New listings volumes through December 2020 trended an average 40.4% higher than the previous five-year average, suggesting the spring selling season of 2020 was 'pushed back' into the final months of the year," Ms Owen said.
Lockdowns to only postpone market activity
Ms Owen said the trend in sales and listings through a lockdown indicate the relative stability of the economy and the housing market amid the COVID-19 pandemic. "This has meant that housing purchasing decisions were more likely to have just been postponed through lockdowns, rather than abandoned all together.” In fact, the muted sales activity through lockdowns actually led to an uplift in sales across Melbourne in December of 2020 and July 2021, a time when seasonally, sales volumes would usually be far more subdued.
"There are tailwinds in place for housing market demand to suggest this may happen again; household savings rates remain elevated, new average mortgage rates continue to reach new record lows, and many government fiscal stimulus and broader institutional responses have been resurrected amid renewed lockdowns," Ms Owen said.
Affordability might become a concern
The consistent surge in prices across capital cities in recent months have already resulted in the inevitable constraints in affordability. CoreLogic's Hedonic Home Value Index in July showed a 1.6% gain in dwelling values, a retreat from the previous growth of 1.9%. Ms Owen said some support schemes that supported consumer sentiment, such as JobKeeper and HomeBuilder have already ended which could dampen the expected rebound in demand.
The rising threat of the Delta variant of COVID-19 might also be a major headwind, as it could result in further lockdowns which will ultimately impact the incomes of Australian households. "With affordability constraints becoming a larger obstacle in the market, as well as the potential for tighter credit conditions further down the track, if buyer activity does not match the lift in listings we could see a gradual rebalancing between sellers and buyers," Ms Owen said.
Article | April 26, 2020
Search online for real estate investment strategies, and you’ll be overwhelmed with the information overload that hits you. Self-proclaimed experts, gurus, and never before heard of writers (because everyone has a book these days) keep posting hordes of stuff regarding where you should focus your efforts and what you should put your money into. Read a few of these sources, and you’ll see that most of the stuff is the same. It’s very unusual to find ideas that are starkly different online. Head to the store and buy books on investment strategies. Though definitely not to-the-point and instead highly detailed, once you finish reading, you will find yourself at the same spot you were before. Countless case studies, multiple options, a lot of theory, and no practical application! Don’t fret. My article today isn’t going to give you 10 more real estate investment strategies.
Article | March 28, 2020
It’s time to get on board with content marketing—real estate is changing, and as a result, real estate agents need to change their approach, too. Many agents may already understand the need for content marketing, but I’m often asked, “How do I get started and create a content marketing plan?” You can create a real estate content plan using the following steps.
Article | April 3, 2020
It is where the AI (Artificial Intelligence) takes over days worth of a real estate agent's hard work and computes results in a second. We are moving at an unprecedented pace in technology and everything seems to be moving faster with time - Data capture, data analysis, home comparables, broker commission splits, transaction timeline and much more. As AI (Artificial Intelligence) and IOT (Internet of things) take over most of the work of Realtors, the biggest question that lies ahead is "What is the future of Real Estate & Realtors? Would AI replace real estate agents in the near future or will there still be an inert need of knowledgable professionals when people want to buy or sell their homes?"