The Possibility of the Fed Pausing on Interest Rate Hikes Is Good News for CRE As Long as it Doesn’t Lead to a Bubble

Federal Reserve Chariman Jerome Powell’s indications of a less aggressive stance on interest rate hikes in 2019 is mostly good news for commercial real estate capital markets, experts say—as long as caution is exercised. “It is good news because lower rates make deals cheaper. However, a Fed pause also means that the Fed is recognizing that downside risks to the economy are building up, which is bad news,” says Robert Dye, chief economist with Comerica Bank. Powell indicated last year that there would be four rate hikes this year, before cutting that estimate to two in December. In early January, he took an even softer stance, saying he would be patient and watch to see how the economy evolves.