End of the road? Assessing the likelihood of a US commercial real estate downturn

Commercial real estate (CRE) performance has been “on a roll”. The NCREIF Property Index (NPI), a widely-used total return performance benchmark of US institutional-quality CRE, has posted 6 consecutive calendar years of double-digit total returns. This marks the longest such run in NPI history; the previous record was 5 years between 1996 and 2000. This longevity combined with more frequent and intensifying financial market volatility has elevated investor anxiety. Some investors fear that the “end of the road” for the real estate expansion may be approaching. But, it bears remembering that real estate expansions do not just expire or die ofold age. Utilizing a well-accepted technique for analyzing economic cycles, we explore the likelihood of a US real estate downturn in the next four quarters. Our findings support our “cautious optimism” regarding US CRE prospects; we do not see the “end of the road” for the expansion just yet.

Spotlight

Flatiron Construction

We are a leading transportation and infrastructure contractor in North America. We develop innovative solutions to build landmark projects including roads, bridges, rail, airports, dams, water, industrial and underground infrastructure for both public and private clients. Flatiron delivers projects through a variety of contracting methods, including CM/GC, design-build and public private partnerships.

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Spotlight

Flatiron Construction

We are a leading transportation and infrastructure contractor in North America. We develop innovative solutions to build landmark projects including roads, bridges, rail, airports, dams, water, industrial and underground infrastructure for both public and private clients. Flatiron delivers projects through a variety of contracting methods, including CM/GC, design-build and public private partnerships.

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